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'chilling explanation of what Brexit will do to the UK economy after December' - Adam Posen [5 mins]
This is the most chilling explanation of what Brexit will do to the UK economy after December. By @AdamPosen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Boris Johnson's Brexit timetable does not give enough time for full trade agreement, Michel Barnier says
09/01/2020
Chief negotiator sets out red lines for ‘basic agreement’ and says UK will have to agree to ‘level playing field’ if it wants access to European markets.
Survey shows 88% of 100 leading academics believe a Canada-style trade deal with the EU will have a "negative" impact on Britain's economy.
Regardless of a deal or no-deal Brexit, the current political uncertainties are challenging the UK's position as the premier location for resolving disputes. Commercial courts have already opened in Paris and Amsterdam, with proceedings conducted entirely in English and expressly aimed at competing with the UK.
On 26 October, we held a panel event to discuss the impact of Brexit on music specifically and the Arts generally. / As a preface to the evening’s discussion, the editor-in-chief, Anthea Simmons, read out a powerful, personal message from Sir Howard Goodall which we reproduce here in full.
What is the single market and why does it matter in talks about Brexit?
New research from economics experts at Aston University has found Brexit has caused a largely negative effect on UK services trade since the EU referendum.
THE UK's decision to break away from the EU cost service exports more than £110 billion over a four-year period, new research has shown.
Brexit will potentially cost London’s economy £9.5bn a year – with the capital’s service sectors bearing the brunt of the downturn, stark new research published by the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, reveals today.
Sadiq Khan urges government to strike financial services equivalence deal with EU.
Warning that crisis will ‘get worse as businesses see that there is not much going on in UK-EU negotiations’.
Experts found that UK services exports between 2016 and 2019 were £113 billion lower than they would have been if not for Brexit.
The UK’s obsession with regulation autonomy has “strong implications", Luisa Santos said.
London, at the heart of the UK’s service sector economy, may lose up to £9.5bn in economic output a year from Brexit.
Brexit rancour and Boris Johnson’s plan to rip up Northern Ireland deal spell trouble for UK legal industry
29/07/2021
We need permission from France, Germany et al to rejoin an international treaty or risk hamstringing a large part of Britain’s legal services industry.
A new report exposes in detail the impact that Brexit is having on businesses - with the effects getting worse over time, not better.
State’s 2016-2019 services exports £126bn higher than projections based on prior trends
The capital’s service sectors will bear the brunt of a downturn, according to a study published by the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan.
House of lords says ‘significant challenges remain’ for the financial services sector.
Brexit will hit trade in services between the Republic and UK irrespective of the outcome of current talks, according to all-island professional body Chartered Accountants Ireland.
SINCE the EU referendum in 2016, there have been largely negative effects to the UK services trade, according to new research.
Brexit will decimate UK services exports – but remarkably clueless politicians would rather remain silent
08/07/2019
Leaving the single market will come as a huge blow to the services sector. Rather than acknowledging that fact, our ruling class have opted to press on.
Brexiters are often accused of living in the past. That is manifest in the now recurring Brexiter response to concerns about Brexit: ‘but we did perfectly well before’.
As the UK attempts to join the Lugano Convention, questions are being asked about London's position as a litigation and arbitration centre.
Brexit: despatches from the downside – No 30
12/04/2024
The stock exchange ‘going down the gurgler’, a ‘hammer blow’ to the food industry, married Britons punished, and some rare Brexit upsides
There's been a lot of talk about free trade in the Brexit debate, but what exactly is a free trade agreement and how does it differ from what the UK has had with the EU?
In January, UK goods exporters soon discovered the ‘tariff and quota-free’ deal Boris Johnson signed with the EU did not offer frictionless trade.
What happens in the next three months, perhaps even the next couple of weeks, is going to shape the fate of the country for decades. If Brexit goes ahead, in any form, it will enact a profound misreading of the nature of the contemporary political and economic world and represent an unprecedented failure of British statecraft.
Brexit is a Tory invention and pro-Europeans must still fight the prospect of EU exile, writes Will Hutton.
Britain's specialism in traded services, some of which can be delivered electronically, has led Brexiters to claim that the country's trade will inevitably unmoor itself from Europe. In fact, Britain is not about to enter a "post-geography trading world".
UK firms warn that even with a trade deal, both sides need to phase-in changes to border checks over six months.
‘Prepare for the worst’ EU officials tell business after Sajid Javid’s FT interview.
CER: Brexit's impact on services
18/12/2018
Trade in services has not received enough attention in the Brexit debate.
Guy Hands, Terra Firma Capital Partners chairman and chief investment officer, discusses the impact of Brexit on U.K. exports, investment strategy, and the influence of environmental, social and governance issues on the firm's mergers and acquisitions.
Brussels looks set to lock the City of London out of European markets from 1 January, with the EU not planning on granting regulatory equivalence before the end of the Brexit transition period.
The collision of the pandemic and leaving the European Union (EU) has tipped an £18bn loss in travel services trade, according to the latest figures.
The United Kingdom has passed the point of no return. It has less than six months to reach a new trade deal with the European Union or risk heaping more pressure on companies that are already laying off tens of thousands of workers because of the coronavirus pandemic.
Exactly four weeks before Britain leaves the EU’s single market following Brexit, it is still unclear how much access it will retain to the bloc’s data from security tools used in everything from combating crime to business information.
For some weeks the British government has been planning a “shock and awe” campaign to warn British businesses that they have less than six months to prepare for Brexit; but the EU has beaten them to it.
EU tells UK to respect its independence
05/03/2020
Chief negotiator Michel Barnier says 'the EU sets its own conditions for opening up its markets for goods and services'
European Commission vice-president says Brussels wants to get ‘Brexit done’ – while London refuses to talk about Northern Ireland.
On 15 October, the Council adopted decisions on the signature of two agreements between the EU and Singapore: a free trade agreement, an investment protection agreement.
European University Association explores impact of Brexit deal on universities in new briefing
02/02/2021
At the end of long and intense negotiations, this briefing aims to bring clarity to the new relationship and how universities in the European Union and the United Kingdom can continue to cooperate.
Exports to EU to plunge by more than one-third because of Boris Johnson’s Brexit trade deal, study warns
14/01/2021
Income per-head forecast to fall by 6 per cent – just 2 per cent less than under a no-deal departure.
Alexander Stubb, former Prime Minister of Finland, and Komal Sri-Kumar, founder and president at Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, examine the process of Brexit negotiations.
Getting ready for changes - Communication on readiness at the end of the transition period between the European Union and the United Kingdom (European Commission)
09/07/2020
Even if the European Union and the United Kingdom conclude a highly ambitious partnership covering all areas agreed in the Political Declaration by the end of 2020, the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU acquis, the internal market and the Customs Union, at the end of the transition period will inevitably create barriers to trade and cross-border exchanges that do not exist today.
The EU Services Sub-Committee has today published its report, Beyond Brexit: trade in services, which examines the future UK-EU relationship on trade in services.
Businesses in the services sectors face ‘major barriers’ despite trade agreement, a study suggests.
Businesspeople, academics, journalists and a top trade unionist have formed a group with the purpose of repairing fractured UK-EU relations.
The U.K.’s hopes of a swift trade deal with Japan will ultimately rest on a successful resolution to the main talks between London and the European Union on a new trading arrangement, some experts say.
Ex-EU ambassador says PM’s ‘strategy errors’ will make good trade deal harder to achieve.
Johnson's 'no deal 2.0' virtue signalling
20/12/2019
"The first week of Johnson’s new administration has seen both speculation about, and the beginning of some answers to, how he intends to undertake Brexit. The outrageousness of that situation shouldn’t pass without comment."
Taxes cut on birds’ eggs, raw hides, fur skins and ultra-strong spirits – but UK does not export them anyway.
London Leaders' Letter to David Davis: Brexit Trade-Offs a False and Damaging Choice for London & UK
17/07/2017
A broad coalition of London leaders have called on Government to recognise the damage that the wrong Brexit deal could inflict on the city.
Today, peers in the House of Lords published a report that said the creative industries need a new agreement to resolve issues with mobility arrangements and moving goods between the UK and EU.
85 per cent of UK businesses have restructured in the wake of January’s Brexit deal, and the majority believe leaving the EU has negatively impacted operations, according to a new report.
Equivalence permits for UK financial services unlikely to be ready by January 1st.
MPs In Denial On Brexit Must 'Look Reality In The Eye', Says UK's Former EU Ambassador Sir Ivan Rogers
22/01/2019
Sir Ivan Rogers said extending Article 50 is "not a given" and extreme Leavers and Remainers were pushing UK to cliff edge.
New Brexit trade agreement confirms macroeconomic cost for UK of losing EU membership - Moody's
25/01/2021
Brexit trade deal is largely lacking in areas vital to the UK economy, such as services. / The UK economic will be significantly smaller of the longer term.
The impact of Brexit on trade, immigration and political economy in new e-book.
The 2016 referendum, which resulted in a narrow win for those campaigning to leave the European Union, has posed perhaps the most complex set of questions ever faced by a peacetime government.
No deal Brexit: issues, impact, implications
03/09/2019
The report shows that no deal will not “get Brexit done” rather, it will usher in a period of prolonged uncertainty for citizens, workers and businesses, which is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, our new report, No deal Brexit: issues, impacts, implications, reveals.
No Wonder Donald Trump Loves Brexit So Much
03/06/2019
The U.S. wants to move the U.K. away from the EU’s set of trade rules and regulations toward the American one. Farage and Johnson are easy prey.
Bleak impact including higher prices in shops is revealed in OBR report accompanying Rishi Sunak's spending review.
A summit crucial to the issue of climate change is instead mired in disentangling the mess of Britain’s exit from the EU
Property sector hit hardest, followed by financial services, leisure and culture, research finds. / The number of UK businesses in “critical” financial distress jumped 17 per cent over the year to the end of March, with a significant deterioration seen in the first quarter of 2019 as Brexit uncertainty deepened.
Recently, the government launched a wide-ranging consultation on proposed changes to the UK’s data landscape, with Brussels’ warnings that it will sever a data-sharing agreement with the UK if the proposed reforms are found to pose a threat to EU citizens’ privacy.
Reopen EU talks to help professionals, musicians and artists harmed by Brexit, Boris Johnson told
24/03/2021
Improvements ‘essential’ to rescue services trade, peers say – warning ‘too much is at stake if we don’t’.
Services Priorities for a Future U.S.-UK Trade Agreement [report, PDF] - Coalition of Services Industries [US]
This paper considers only trade in services between the United States and the UK in the context of the latter’s anticipated departurefrom the EU and identifies priorities for any future legal arrangement governing U.S.-UK trade in services. / "Many American services suppliers chose the UK as their European headquarters in order to benefit from operating inside the EU Single Market."
BRIEFING PAPER 6 - NOVEMBER 2016
There’s a whole other side of trade. A side of trade that typically doesn’t garner the headlines because its complicated, boring, and much more difficult for politicians to be photographed standing in front of. A side of trade you hear mentioned briefly as important, to much somber nodding of heads, before everyone invariably goes back to arguing about tariffs and containers.
Sir Martin Donnelly: UK trade and exports – the challenge of how British firms succeed after Brexit
28/02/2018
Sir Martin shared his insight on what challenges the Government is facing, what the Government and business should do now and how the UK seeks to forge new trading relationships outside of the European Union.
UK businesses that trade with Europe are continuing to have a tough time because of post-Brexit bureaucracy, according to an investigation carried out by the Financial Times.
It is apposite that Sky News are now badging all of their Brexit coverage with the label ‘Brexit Crisis’. For the political crisis which has been incipient since, at least, the 2017 General Election is now well underway, and will almost certainly intensify.
Trade has plummeted and red tape has blocked our borders. Is that what ‘protecting our sovereignty’ meant?
The CBI has responded to the publication of the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration.
17/10/2019
“Frictionless EU trade and regulatory alignment is vital for UK prosperity and jobs. The deal remains inadequate on services, which make up 80% of the UK economy. And big questions remain about the feasibility of negotiating a new trade agreement deep enough in a 14-month transition period."
Mark Carney and other financiers seem to think London can do business as usual without playing by the EU's rules. This is confidence bordering on complacency.
It was Boris Johnson’s choice to prioritise “sovereignty” over the economy – and Britain is already paying the price.
Just in case you don't fancy the 1,200+ page document on Boxing Day.
The impact of Brexit on UK services
08/12/2021
In this report, Sarah Hall, Senior Fellow at UK in a Changing Europe and Martin Heneghan, Research Fellow at the University of Nottingham explore the consequences to date of Brexit, and particularly of the TCA, for service providers.
It has been almost two and a half years since the United Kingdom signed its post-Brexit trade deal with the European Union (EU), which was expected to have multifaceted impacts on the UK economy.
Despite calls to 'take back control' the economic reality is that tariffs will be determined by the 'bound rates' that the UK already has in place under the WTO and, ultimately, no tariff regime will make up for loss of access to the EU market
In 11 key policy areas, POLITICO reporters look ahead to March 30, 2019.
A post-Brexit deal should make it easier to build supermarkets, avoid tax and sue the UK, US business lobbyists say.
The U.K.’s dominant services sector flatlined in October, the only part of the economy not to contract.
The drop comes despite a boost to the economy in the first quarter of the year, thanks to Brexit stockpiling.
'Yet a no deal outcome would still have profound implications for the uK. as we analyse in what follows, from trade to connectivity to foreign policy to cooperation in policing, a failure to strike an agreement with the eu will impact on us in numerous ways.'
Carolyn Fairbairn of CBI says her ‘really big disappointment’ was the lack of help for British services in the potential deal
Factories’ slowdown and weak activity in services signal “minimal” economic growth in second quarter.
Now that many advanced economies have recovered and are close to – or above – their pre-pandemic level of output, we can compare Britain’s economic performance to its peers. The results are troubling.
With negotiations between the UK and the European Union (EU) - over a trade agreement - going down to the wire, the possibility of there being no deal is being talked about.
What does no-deal Brexit mean? Consequences of UK leaving the EU without deal after Boris Johnson’s warning
16/10/2020
Britain has been told to prepare for a no-deal Brexit when the transition period ends on 1 January 2021, after trade deal talks reached an impasse.
Even without the chaos of ‘no deal’, trading only on WTO terms post Brexit would mean substantial disruption to supply chains, with new tariffs, regulatory barriers and customs checks applying on day one of Brexit, explains Richard Barfield. Three sectors with the most jobs at risk are administration and support services, wholesale trade, and legal and accounting services.
"Only as true friends can, I want to be very honest about what lies ahead of us." The words of the new European Commission president as she headed to Downing Street and her first face-to-face meeting with Boris Johnson on Wednesday.
£20bn UK-Norway trade deal implodes over British beef and cheese as crucial deadline passes
28/05/2021
A wide-ranging free trade pact between the UK and Norway will have to be pushed back as Norway’s coalition government failed to reach an agreement today.
‘Catastrophic’ risk to lawyers, architects and other professionals being ignored, peers warn
13/10/2020
Lucrative services sector cannot prepare for potentially huge new obstacles to trading in the EU – because it is ‘not sure what to prepare for’.
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